Mixed bag: SPY and VIX hold, QQQ falls short of 745 call wall, IWM invalidation signal triggered
QQQ tests 745 call wall at some point during the session, driven by NVDA's pre-market strength; thesis invalidates on a QQQ open and hold below 740.
QQQ touched a session high of 744.649 — within 36 cents of the 745 call wall — but has since pulled back to 742.53, never printing a clean 745 touch; the open at 742.44 held above the 740 invalidation level.
SPY remains range-bound between 756 put wall and 760 call wall for the majority of the session given +$2.56B net GEX compression.
SPY is trading at 757.75 with a session range of 756.76–758.46, pinned entirely inside the 756–760 GEX band through the first hour.
IWM fails to sustain a break above 290 call wall; negative GEX of -$0.94B and lower-high price structure limit upside; thesis invalidates on a clean close above 290.
IWM printed a session high of 291.26, breaching the 290 call wall cleanly; the thesis invalidation condition (close above 290) is in the process of being met, with price currently at 289.76 after a pullback.
VIX stays below 17.00 through the session absent a JOLTs miss, consistent with current 16.15 normal volatility regime.
VIX is at 16.12 as of 10:15 ET, well below the 17.00 threshold despite a modest +1.83% move on the day.
SPY confirmed range-bound in its GEX corridor, VIX well-behaved at 16.12 — but IWM spiked above 290 (thesis invalidation) and QQQ kissed 744.65 without printing the 745 call wall touch. Two confirms, one partial, one denied: mixed session so far.
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