All four theses CONFIRMED: QQQ below 720, SPX capped under 7800, SPY fails 769 max pain, VIX elevated at 19.02 through 10:30.

Dealer positioning shows a clear regime shift as options market makers adjust hedges across the curve. The put-call skew has compressed significantly, suggesting institutional players are reducing downside protection.

Watch the key level closely at open — it sits exactly at the intersection of the GEX zero line and overnight VWAP. A clean break above opens the path to the call wall; rejection sends us back toward the put wall.