Bearish thesis fractured: SPY reclaims VWAP zone while QQQ stays below 740 and IWM bursts through call wall
SPY remains bearish below the 755.40 VWAP level; a failure to reclaim VWAP by 10:30 ET confirms the downside setup targeting the 750.0 put wall.
SPY printed 754.11 at 10:30 ET, trading within 1.30 points of VWAP (755.40) after opening at 752.07 and rallying to a HOD of 754.28, effectively challenging — not confirming — the bearish setup.
QQQ, already below its 740.0 put wall at 736.51 pre-market, holds a bearish posture unless it reclaims 740.0 on the open.
QQQ opened at 735.35, peaked at 737.78, and is trading 737.21 at 10:30 ET — still well below the 740.0 put wall with no reclaim attempt.
IWM stays range-bound between the 282.0 put wall and 290.0 call wall, with the call wall acting as a ceiling given the -57 trend bias score.
IWM printed 290.59 at its HOD and is trading 290.59 at 10:30 ET, decisively breaching the 290.0 call wall rather than being contained by it.
VIX does not reverse the 2.49% pre-market spike intraday, consistent with a risk-off session rather than a mean-reversion pop.
VIX is trading 15.82, down 1.62% from yesterday's close, with a session open of 16.06 — a clear intraday reversal of the pre-market spike.
Bears got three of four theses wrong at the open: SPY is challenging VWAP, IWM broke its call wall, and VIX reversed — only QQQ's stay below 740 held. Watch SPY 755.40 VWAP vs 760 call wall for afternoon direction.
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