Bias denied: SPY fails 759 put wall, trades below 757 invalidation level
SPY reclaims the 759 put wall at or shortly after the open and holds it as support, confirming the bullish bias; thesis invalidates on a sustained print below 757.
SPY opened at 758.23 but immediately sold off, printing a low of 754.84 and trading at 756.77 as of 10:30 — a sustained print below the 757 invalidation level.
QQQ holds above the 744 put wall and makes a run toward 748–750 call wall if ISM Services prints at or above 53.8 without a hot prices-paid component.
QQQ is holding above the 744 put wall at 746.52 and touched a high of 748.62 (reaching the lower bound of the 748–750 call wall target), but has since retreated and failed to sustain a run through the zone.
IWM underperforms SPY and QQQ on a relative basis today, consistent with CHOP trend bias (score 12, 17% confidence) and LH/LL price structure.
IWM is down -0.0035% versus SPY +0.0066% and QQQ +0.0156%, underperforming both on a relative basis through the first hour.
VIX remains below 17.00 through the first hour, consistent with the NORMAL vol regime and absence of UOA above $50M threshold.
VIX is printing 15.98, well below the 17.00 threshold, with the day's range entirely between 15.81 and 15.83.
SPY's bullish thesis was invalidated early as price broke and sustained below 757, with NYSE breadth printing a deeply negative 841/1805 A/D ratio — the 755–760 zone is the key battleground for the rest of the session.
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