Thesis mixed: SPY range holds and IWM confirmed weak, but QQQ touched call wall and VIX breached 16.50

SPY remains range-bound between 755 and 760 until ISM at 10:00 ET resolves directional pressure — a 5-minute close above 759 post-ISM is the bull confirmation level.

SPY opened 755.44, traded a range of 754.70–756.69, and at 10:30 ET sat at 755.86 — contained within 755–760 but failed to generate any post-ISM thrust toward the 759 bull confirmation level.

QQQ fails to sustain trade above 740 call wall in the first hour, capping Nasdaq relative to SPY.

QQQ's day high of 740.095 precisely tagged the 740 call wall but did not sustain above it, with the 10:30 print at 738.21 — directionally correct cap, but the brief touch of 740.095 means the wall was tested rather than cleanly rejected.

IWM underperforms both SPY and QQQ this session, trading below the 290 put wall at 10:30 ET check.

IWM at 10:30 ET printed 286.88, down 0.05%, well below the 290 put wall and the only major index in negative territory, underperforming SPY (+0.004%) and QQQ (+0.008%).

VIX remains below 16.50 through 10:30 ET — no vol spike despite ISM print — consistent with the current NORMAL regime at 15.78.

VIX at 10:30 ET printed 16.07 with a high of 16.82 on the day open, breaching the 16.50 threshold intraday before settling lower — the 16.82 open print technically violated the 'below 16.50' condition.